Market Lifecycle
Every market follows a defined path from creation to settlement. Each stage has clear rules, public criteria, and a mechanism for challenge.
Market is Live
The market is accepting positions. Resolution criteria, data source, and resolution date are publicly visible and immutable from the moment the market opens. Participants take YES or NO positions based on the stated criteria. The probability displayed reflects the aggregate weight of all positions.
Resolution Proposal
The resolution date has passed. A resolution proposal is submitted by the market operator, citing the specific data point from the pre-declared source. The proposed outcome (YES, NO, or VOID) is published along with the supporting evidence. Positions can still be taken during this phase, though probabilities will converge rapidly toward the expected outcome.
48-Hour Challenge Period
After a resolution is proposed, a 48-hour window opens during which any participant can submit a dispute. Disputes must include a specific, publicly verifiable counter-source demonstrating that the proposed outcome is incorrect. If a credible dispute is received, resolution is paused and reviewed. Frivolous disputes — those lacking a verifiable source — do not delay settlement.
Settlement
If no credible dispute is received during the 48-hour window, or if a dispute is reviewed and rejected, the resolution becomes final. The market is marked as Resolved YES, Resolved NO, or Void. Winning positions are credited at 1 XMR per share. Losing positions expire worthless. In the case of Void, all positions are returned at their entry price.
Resolution Sources
Every market declares its resolution source at creation. The source must be publicly accessible, independently verifiable, and unambiguous.
On-Chain Data
Monero blockchain data including block heights, hard fork activations, hashrate thresholds, and protocol-level metrics. Verified via public block explorers and node consensus.
e.g., FCMP++ activation blockPrice Data
Aggregated XMR price data from decentralized exchanges and atomic swap volume. Primary sources: CoinGecko API, DEX aggregators, and Haveno trade data. Cross-referenced across multiple providers.
e.g., XMR/USD > $500 by datePublic Announcements
Official statements from the Monero Core Team, Monero Research Lab, or named ecosystem projects. Source must be a public post, signed release, or verified repository commit with a timestamp.
e.g., Seraphis testnet launchNetwork Metrics
Monero network statistics including active node counts, transaction throughput, mining difficulty adjustments, and adoption metrics. Sourced from monitoring infrastructure and node data.
e.g., daily tx count > 50,000Void Conditions
A market may be voided — returning all positions at entry price — under specific circumstances.
Ambiguous Outcome
The resolution criteria cannot be definitively met because the event outcome is genuinely indeterminate — not merely a close call, but a situation where the criteria as written do not map to an observable state.
Source Unavailability
The declared resolution source is permanently unavailable, compromised, or no longer produces the data type specified at market creation. Temporary outages do not trigger void — only permanent loss of the source.
Criteria Defect
A material defect in the resolution criteria is discovered that makes fair resolution impossible. This includes contradictions, circular definitions, or criteria that reference non-existent data points.
Market Manipulation
Credible evidence emerges that the market outcome was artificially engineered specifically to exploit the prediction market. This is a high bar — natural market dynamics and informed trading are not manipulation.
Filing a Dispute
Required Elements
The market title or ID clearly identifying which market you are disputing.
State the proposed resolution you believe is incorrect and what you believe the correct outcome should be.
A specific, publicly accessible URL or reference that demonstrates the proposed resolution is factually wrong. "I disagree" is not a dispute — evidence is required.
What Happens After Filing
- Your dispute is reviewed against the market's original resolution criteria — not against general reasonableness or your preferred outcome.
- If the evidence is credible, settlement is paused and the proposed resolution is re-evaluated.
- If the dispute is upheld, the resolution is corrected and settlement proceeds with the corrected outcome.
- If the dispute is rejected, the original resolution stands and settlement proceeds normally.
- You will not be identified or penalized for filing a good-faith dispute, even if it is rejected.
Your position.
Your terms.
Your privacy.
Pseudonymous accounts. No KYC. Create a handle, take positions, and collect in XMR — your identity stays yours.
